Geographic Offender Profiling

The geographic distribution of crime is not random but depends on the offender's routines and habits. Where an offender commits a crime can say something about the offender, but the location itself is also interesting for the purpose of catching the perpetrator. Geographic profiling tries to identify places where offenders live, work, or spend their time.

The decision to commit a crime

People weigh costs against benefits before making decisions. This also applies to the decision to commit a crime. The person will consider the potential benefit the behavior could lead to, for example social status, money, or revenge, and then weigh this against how great the risk is: will I be discovered or punished.

Places the offender frequents more often are places they know more about, which creates a sense of increased safety when acting in these areas. The expected cost therefore decreases. Because the offender is more often present in the area, there are also more opportunities for crimes that arise there. They might see a person they want to take revenge on (perceived benefit) in a place with few witnesses (reduced expected cost), which creates an opportunity and thereby a decision to commit a violent crime.

People are also lazy by nature and tend to commit crimes closer to home to a greater extent, since it requires less effort.

Marauders and commuters

Offenders can be categorized into two types: those who commit their crimes in the same area where they spend their everyday lives. This type of offender is called a marauder. The other type commits crimes outside the zone where they usually spend their time. This type of offender is referred to as a commuter.

Different types of offenders tend to be marauders or commuters. For example, serial rapists are more often marauders, while serial burglars are more often commuters. This can be linked to how we make decisions. Committing burglary in an area other than where you live reduces the risk of being recognized, and you can increase the benefit by committing the crime in a wealthier area. In the same way, a rape may be committed close to home because the offender has identified a victim in their everyday environment, knows when and where few people are around, and is aware of potential escape routes (lower risk). Traveling further in these situations would have reduced the sense of control over the situation.

Circle theory

The circle hypothesis is used to establish an area within which an offender has their home, their workplace, or carries out their leisure activities. The area produced takes the shape of a circle, and the circle is defined by the crime scenes in a series of linked crimes. The circle's diameter is created from the two crime scenes that are furthest apart from each other. The method has proven successful in narrowing down search areas for serial murders, serial rapes, and arson, but also for poaching. For crimes such as burglary, the method is less successful. It is mainly unprofessional, impulsive, and inexperienced burglars who commit crimes close to home.

Preventing crime in a place

Crime can be prevented by planning and designing environments in ways that make it harder to commit crime and increase people's sense of safety. The physical environment influences how people behave. If an area is lively and used by many people at different times of day, for example because it contains housing, shops, and workplaces, the risk of crime decreases because more people can see what is happening and the risk of being noticed increases. How the environment is designed also matters: good lighting, open spaces, and clear walkways make it easier to keep watch and contribute to an increased sense of safety. It is also important that people feel a sense of responsibility for the area they are in. When a place is perceived as well cared for and it is clear what is private and what is public, people become more inclined to look after it. In this way, a well-designed environment can both reduce crime, increase safety, and strengthen the sense of community among people.